This glamourised gambling site is making the rich richer, as they bank huge stakes on the bets of political warfare.
When you search for ‘Polymarket’, Google hits you with a slightly deceptive description. In simple terms, Polymarket is coined as a ‘prediction market.’ Though we all know that’s just a playful way of saying a ‘gambling association.’
Founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020, Polymarket is a successful cryptocurrency trading platform operating in the United States. It’s often downplayed as a harmless organisation where people place bets on mundane future outcomes.
From pop culture moments to sports matches or weather patterns. And while these are still subjects users are trading on, at its core, Polymarket is an online scheme that is chronically underregulated, and has sparked concerns about corruption, intimidation and insider trading.
This is largely because thousands of civilians and political correspondents are emptying their pockets to bet on active wars happening globally. In the hopes of making huge profits. And the sad thing is, in some cases, they are.
Polymarket has a total of 218 ‘war predictions & odds’ forums that people can join. And in 2026 alone, bets within these areas surged. The war in the Middle East has become a popular topic. By April 11th, $280 million (£206m) was being bet on the US-Iran ceasefire.
Most recently, more than $9 million (£6.6m) of shares were traded on whether President Donald Trump would impose a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This comes just weeks after he issued a series of threats against Iran, after they blocked the passage for two months.
As one of the US’s largest betting systems, Polymarket is rapidly becoming a more ‘legitimised’ site profiting from political instability. For a betting site, users’ odds are almost becoming too good to be true. “Polymarket is becoming more accurate than experts,” says broadcast journalist Emily Coffee.
Serious wars and world events have become the blueprint for earning your buck. But what damage is it causing?
“A lot of the Russia-Ukraine bets are settled with information published by the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank. They produce a daily map of the frontline. But these organisations have no idea that their reporting is being used to settle bets on Polymarket. Sometimes they become targeted,” AI reporter, Aisha Down, wrote in The Guardian.
On March 29th, the Congress of the United States issued a seven-page letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Within it, they requested a new rule to prevent governing partners from trading in prediction markets based on world policies.
This followed an outbreak in which a special forces officer successfully earned $400,000 (£296,000) after trading on inside knowledge of the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
“What we found there is that when people learn about members of Congress making really outrageous sums from stock trading. It reduces congressional legitimacy, and it also affects their willingness to comply with the law,” says Raihan Alam in conversation with Coffee.
In other words, the use of Polymarket in political affairs potentially reflects corruption within the system. Not that there wasn’t already. It’s a sign that the industry has the power to predict and override certain events that would otherwise be impossible.
Coplan, however, has urged that Polymarket is “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.” But how reliable can a forum be if its foundations are based on human guesses? Surely, it can’t be accurate, since there is no certainty in that.
Coplan’s definition alone warrants closer examination, as for Polymarket to actually be accurate, it would need to exploit technology for human gain. Or, have inside knowledge. Unless you have tools that can guarantee this, it isn’t an ethical prediction market. It’s a fast track to rigged success.
Mikita, a YouTuber known for testing and reviewing financial tools, has also touched upon the subject: “To really understand it, don’t think of a betting website. Think of it as a market for opinions, where every opinion has a price.” Which is comical since all legal bets are based on opinions. Guesses that, if you’re lucky, also come with a price.
As far as ethics go, Polymarket couldn’t be further removed. Hence, it is geo-blocked in over 30 countries, including the UK. Profiting from peer-to-peer betting, Polymarket is regulated by people gambling against one another. As opposed to a casino or bookmaker, which correlates more with the typical gambling structure.
Earlier this year, The Guardian published a piece about how millions were using the platform to bet on ‘war strikes and diplomatic strategy.’ Further proof that Polymarket is not just a harmless platform where people can make money from their guesses, but rather a tool for exploitation.
Since then, stories have been released tenfold on this rapidly growing market and its connection with unethical political affairs. Though this isn’t entirely news.
Since its founding in 2020, Polymarket has been entrenched in the political sector. During the presidential elections in 2024, 3.4 billion users made predictions on who would win a seat.
Additionally, some of its biggest investors are those with extreme political status. Such as Donald Trump Jr., who is also on its advisory board. The problem with this is that Trump Jr.’s political position should technically make him an immediate conflict of interest. Instead, he remains a cog in the machine.
If the concept of rigged gambling wasn’t bad enough, Polymarket opens up as a further rabbit hole for a new addiction. Feeding off the tragedies of those in war-torn countries. And while not everyone is on the site for political affairs, comparatively, this is why it’s gaining momentum right now.
It’s worth noting that the adaptation of Polymarket came at a critical time. In 2020, the world was in financial ruin due to the global pandemic, which wiped out more than seven million people.
Culture, politics, sports, and entertainment were now uncertain, and life itself was unprecedented. Arguably, in the eyes of a businessman like Coplan, this societal decline was the gold dust which would lead him to curate a company worth $9 billion (£6.6bn).
In just six years, Polymarket has become a well-respected business partner in some darker spaces of the internet. In January this year, the company collaborated with the Golden Globes for an exclusive prediction campaign. A partnership that saw Polymarket gain value as something plausibly high-end.
However, for those who aren’t fooled by the fancy words, it doesn’t matter how much this company is ‘legitimised’ by accomplished brands or organisations. In the end, it is a betting site and nothing more.
Like any other company, you can’t recognise its success without acknowledging its failures – and something that isn’t addressed enough is the intricate deficiencies of the Polymarket.
Like any other betting system, there is slim to no chance that you will make a profit from your guesses. But few companies are really talking about just how critical those numbers are.
According to Bloomberg, “100,000 Polymarket accounts booked four-figure losses since 2025.” Despite these results, Polymarket averages 683.1 thousand users per month.
Additionally, while there are no charges to trade on the site, users are debited a 2% cut from their winnings. Again, not an astronomical amount, but the more successful you are, the bigger the financial hit.
And since illegal strategising is associated with Polymarket, that means those who are consistently winning on the platform are also taking a substantial cut.
Despite the unethical procedures of Polymarket, it remains a driving prediction tool in the US. Right now, there are select countries safe from further corruption. But the question is, how long for?
In April, Polymarket’s EP of Engineering Josh Stevens shared on X (formerly Twitter) that “Chain migration. We need more block space, cheaper gas and much smaller block times so settlement is instant.” In other words, stating that the company has plans to widen its impact.
Although there is still very little coverage on Polymarket, concerns are rising. Its widespread impact on governing affairs has become critical. And despite its current ban in the UK, that isn’t stopping users from creating hundreds of betting polls on British politics.
Featured image: Compagnons via Unsplash.
